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能源结构实现快速去碳化,石油将从2030年起大幅下降,天然气成为最大的单一能源来源
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最终需求结构中的电力份额将在目前水平上翻一倍多,到2050年达到40%,其中三分之二电力由太阳能光伏和风电提供
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全球排放将在2025年达到峰值,但我们仍将在2028年就用光升温1.5℃的碳预算
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《能源转型展望》展示了DNV GL关于2050年前能源未来的看法,对十大地区和三大行业领域的影响进行建模。这是未来最有可能的路径预测。
LNG
Gas continues to grow before leveling off at 29% of the energy mix by 2050
Though liquefaction of natural gas has been around for over a hundred years, a main driver for strong forecast growth is the simultaneous cost decline and regional shifts in demand and supply. Although global demand for natural gas peaks in 15 years, several regions, including Greater China and Europe, will continue to experience increasing deficits. North America will show a strong gas surplus, and, thus, LNG exports will grow. Global liquefaction and regasification capacity will grow in tandem to more than double current levels. As average shipping distance will also grow, LNG tankers will increase their gas transport market share and transport in tonne-miles will quadruple.
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